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October 22, 2002

A potential constituency

I got an inspirational article sent to me via e-mail today, from Marc Brandl, the LP's Campus Coordinator. It was sent through the LPCampusActivist Yahoo Group. It's from the Washington Post. The title and tone of the article are discouraging on the surface, but if you look close you can see the good parts.

Check it out: Young Voters' Disengagement Skews Politics

Here's the good parts:

The study shows that young adults hold beliefs quite distinct from those of their parents and grandparents -- more conservative in many of their views of government, more tolerant in many of their social values -- and yet are not expressing them at the polls.
...
Disaffected and relatively nonpartisan, the country's 45 million young adults are a constituency-in-waiting -- if candidates could capture their imagination.
...
While they are less prone to vote, younger people have distinctive ideas about what the government should, and shouldn't, do.

In particular, younger people are markedly more enthusiastic than older generations about privatizing what have been public responsibilities.
...
Those same young adults, however, hold other attitudes that traditionally have been regarded as liberal. They are more tolerant of diversity than previous generations and more resistant to government interference with personal choices.

Fiscally conservative, socially liberal? Sounds like libertarian to me. This bodes well for my hopes of gaining office. If I can properly reach and invigorate those young voters-- convince them that they can actually affect changes that ascribe to their values, with their votes --I'll have an edge over the major party candidates, who are unlikely to be able to or bother to try and reach those people. I can just picture them trying, and I have a hard time seeing young people falling for it, unless one of the candidates happens to be particularly young, which isn't likely. I don't think either of the two parties is likely to advance a presidential candidate younger than 40 any time soon. Particularly not when they are focusing so hard on seniors as an electoral base.

Ralph Nader managed to electrify a goodly number of young folks, but I think his appeal is fairly unique, and also fairly limited. I could be wrong, but I think his political star is falling. He's gotten a boost from all the corporate scandals, and he certainly isn't resting on his laurels, what with CitizenWorks and his "Democracy Rising" rallies. And most Greens seem to still be behind him. His problem is that most people have heard him, thought about him, and decided against voting for him. Unless he's going to pull in many millions of new voters (which he hasn't done in his past two runs), he's basically got to convince those 100 million people who didn't vote for him last time. And without reinventing himself, I just don't see what would get too many millions more to get behind him. Of course, he does have Michael Moore on his side, and Michael is broadening his own body of supporters. To the extent that Moore supporters can be transformed into Nader voters, there might be something to work with there. I wouldn't count Ralph Nader out yet, but I wouldn't count on him either. He'll get some stuff done, but I don't expect he'll bring about any major change-- and I don't know what the Green Party is going to do once they give up on him as their big name spokesperson/presidential candidate.

I can't imagine that they would nominate Ralph again in 2008. '04 maybe, but not '08. I wonder who will step up after him for the Greens-- i.e., who I'll be running against in 2008 if I win the Libertarian nomination. If they somehow find someone stronger than Nader, then I will have a much rougher time tapping into that younger voter base, as well as other bases that are appealing to outsider candidates. If they come up with someone not as strong as Nader, I could become their outlet for political release, if I position myself right.

Posted by Lance Brown at October 22, 2002 01:57 AM | TrackBack
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