Barring the collapse of Kerry's campaign, I see only one real scenario where Wesley Clark could win this race. It goes like this:
Dean eventually drops out, and frustrated Deaniacs move to Clark as the anti-war candidate (Michael Moore will be doing all he can to make that happen). Clark then breaks away as an independent, populist type, and replaces Dean as the Internet/progressive darling candidate.
It doesn't seem that Dean has the same exit strategy option, since he declared that he would back whoever the Democratic Party nominated. On the other hand, Clark is an interloper in the party. He could break away if there was a sufficient movement to support that. That's a really big "if" at this point, though.
Clark has been fumbling a bit too much for the high-pressure primary race. He'd have a lot more breathing room as in Independent. Of course, he would have countless new obstacles from that position, too. But that's a separate story.
Back in September, the day Clark was entering the race, I said he was the oe to watch out for. But that was before he had done any campaigning, and he has not lived up to expectations as a campaigner. It feels like he's not listening to his political advisors enough-- like he's doing what he wants to do, contrary to political common sense. That would be alright if he had some expertise on the matter of running for president, but that's not the case.
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